行走边缘

梁文道《我执》: "为什么爱情、死亡和战争是人类文学史上三个最重要的主题？我想是因为这三件事物都会将一个无法内化的绝对他者、一种无法掌控的陌生状态强行置入个体的生命。而如鲍德里亚所说，战争现在已变成不可见的按钮游戏，杀人不见血；而日常的死亡已经被干净文明卫生的医疗系统隔离，爱情就一枝独秀地成为今日最普遍的经验及主题，经得起无穷诠释。"

在《巷口商学院》看到这么一段，很有启发： 先思考一个简单的问题。假设某商品有X、Y、Z三个种类。X进了50个卖出30个，Y进了30个卖出20个，Z进了10个卖了10个。如果由你负责订货，接着你要进哪个商品，又进多少呢？ 如果毫不考虑地只补充卖出的量，我们称之为“补充订货”或“追加订货”。如果那样就好的话，订货就成了事先有答案的“作业”了。不过，这么下去的话，卖场永远是一成不变，客人就会流失。 你必须要分辨“畅销商品”与“滞销商品”。所谓的畅销商品，就如字面所示，是指因切合顾客的需求，卖得好，预期能扩大业绩与利润的商品。 相反地，脱离顾客的需求，销售不佳，无法期待业绩与利润，没有必要摆放在店内的商品，就称为滞销商品。 那么，X、Y、Z中，何者是畅销商品，何者是滞销商品呢？ 目前便利超市已导入了POS系统。这是个在终端的收银机，以售出商品的条码输入资讯——哪个商品何时卖出几个，能够自动管理各种销售资讯的系统。 以POS数据来看销售量，依序为X是30个、Y是20个、Z是10个，所以“销量商品”的冠军是X。但那真的是畅销商品吗？ 在此，我们再试着加入另一个时间的数据。实际上，Z一个钟头就全数卖光，Y半天内30个卖出20个，X一天内50个卖出30个，剩下20个。如果是这个样子呢，就卖出的速度，依序则为Z→Y→X。 虽然销售量最少，但新的畅销商品却是Z。能在一个小时内卖完，是因大家都非常想要这件商品。而Y、X之所以能卖出，说不定是因第二个小时后，店内已没有Z了，顾客虽然早已厌腻Y、X，不得已也只好购买。Y，X很可能才是滞销商品。 如果不假思索，仅参考销售量来补充订货的话，很可能在畅销商品Z的部分就产生商机损失，而X、Y的部分就产生报废损失。相反，如果积极地多进些Z，而适度地订X、Y，或者将其抽离卖场，商机损失就会缩小，报废损失也得以压低。 我们往往站在卖方的立场，关心哪个商品会卖得多，就再进些卖得多的商品。但那是到昨天为止的畅销商品，是与“昨天的顾客”做生意的方法。 现今是个瞬息万变的时代。“昨天的顾客”与“明天的顾客”是不相同的。在下订单时，重要的是思考“明天的顾客”所需是什么。某件商品虽然到昨天为止卖得并不好，但隔天会如何呢？要常思考新的畅销商品是什么，并将商机损失压到最低。 当所需的商品没货时，顾客当天或许会不得已地购买早已厌腻的其他商品，做出消极的选择。但是，一再发生的话，顾客就不再前往那家店了。营业额低于前一年的店，一定是产生了商机损失与报废损失。而这就要归咎于补充订货、追加订货了。 思考：销量、可销期、动销率、在仓时间

现实情况是我们人类不喜欢现实。 稀缺性原理吧

Linux 最初级用戶,初步安装,联网,下载各种插件,安装google chrome linux,QQ,启用搜狗云输入法.继续玩......

《库存控制与管理》

衢州博物馆 江山龙

2009年8月24日，在WZ住处随手拿了一本前辈留下的杂志——《哈佛商业评论》2006年2月刊，塞进背包，拖上行李准备转战QZ，此后这本杂志放于柜中，未曾动过。
2009年9月21日，出于兴趣在网上搜得一本《数据分析竞争法》，作者之一：托马斯·达文波特（Thomas H. Davenport）
此后某一天，翻出尘封的杂志，发现里面有一篇文章，标题《用分析去竞争》，作者：托马斯·达文波特（Thomas H. Davenport）
缘分到了。

After decades of massive economic growth and the migration of villagers to cities, the scarcity of water in China is more dire than ever.
 

Over the past year getting clean water has been a struggle for many in China. In February one of the most severe droughts to hit China in a half-century affected some 5 million people and 2.5 million livestock in the provinces of Hebei and Henan, near Beijing. Farther south in Yancheng, Jiangsu, 300 kilometers from Shanghai, more than 200,000 people were cut off from clean water for three days when a chemical factory dumped carbolic acid into a river. Just before the Olympics last June, the coastal city of Qingdao, site of the sailing events, saw an explosion of algae in nearby waters that may have been caused by pollution.

These are hardly unusual in China. The country that has a long history of devastating floods and droughts arguably faces an even bigger water crisis today. After almost 30 years of double-digit economic growth and the migration of hundreds of millions of villagers to the cities, China has been barely able to meet the spike in demand for water. Its resources were scarce to begin with and pollution has made clean water even scarcer. Another unknown: the effect of climate change. "Based on our country's basic water situation, [we] must implement the strictest water resource management," said Vice-Premier Hui Liangyu at a national water conference in Beijing in January.

The scale of the challenge is enormous. Every year, on average 15.3 million hectares of farmland—13% of the total—faces drought. Today some 300 million people living in rural areas, or nearly a quarter of China's population of 1.3 billion, don't have access to safe drinking water. And among more than 600 Chinese cities, 400 are facing water shortages, including 100 that may see serious shortages, says Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs and author of China's Water Crisis. The country would need another 40 billion cubic meters of water a year—about a tenth of the volume of Lake Erie in the U.S.—to meet the needs of all of its city dwellers fully. "China is facing a dire situation in its water supply," says Ma.

Years of Damage

One of China's biggest problems: wastewater. Factories and cities have discharged mostly untreated sewage and pollutants into the country's rivers and lakes—some 53.7 billion tons in 2006 alone, according to the World Bank. China's environmental regulators have designated 48 of China's major lakes as seriously polluted. One-fourth of the water sampled along China's two largest rivers—the Yangtze and Yellow—was found to be too polluted even for farm irrigation. And tap water isn't entirely safe, either, with Chinese authorities responding to 48 large-scale environmental emergencies last year. "Extensive water pollution of course impacts on water scarcity. This is especially [true] in China," says Washington-based Jamal Saghir, director of the Energy, Transport & Water Unit of the World Bank.

China's huge population is a strain, too. The country's water resources are only about 25% of the average per capita for countries around the world. That problem is compounded by a huge regional disparity. Southern China has a relative abundance of water, getting more than 2,000 millimeters (79 inches) a year of rainfall. In the north—where 17 million people live in Beijing and 12 million live in Tianjin—the average annual rainfall is just 200mm to 400mm (7.9 in. to 15.8 in.) a year. "Availability of water drops to a very low level on the north China plain, even below that of Israel," says Ma. And this region is home to "China's political and cultural capital, major manufacturing, and one of China's bread baskets," he adds.

China has worsened its own problems by offering large subsidies for water to keep prices low. That practice has led to plenty of waste, experts say. 

Even though China has hiked average water prices more than tenfold in the past two decades, prices are still far below global market prices and a fraction of levels in the U.S. The global financial crisis has only made price reforms more difficult. "Water prices can be a life-or-death issue for the poor in developing countries," says the World Bank's Saghir. "It's a problem because it is more difficult to implement reform when many cannot afford to pay any higher costs for water."

Lost Opportunity

Roughly 65% of the country's total water usage goes to agriculture, but less than half actually reaches the crops; the rest leaks from pipes, evaporates, or is otherwise lost on the way to the fields, according to World Bank statistics. And of the 25% that goes to China's industry, the majority isn't recycled. That compares to a recycling average of as high as 85% in developing countries. As more Chinese flock to cities, the 10% that goes to homes is likely to rise.

For now, China's government is trying to spend its way out of the dilemma. By September of last year, the country had invested .46 billion into 2,712 water treatment projects, according to China's Ministry of Environmental Protection. Beijing has embarked on a massive and controversial multibillion-dollar effort to transport water from southern regions. But the project has been delayed over both environmental concerns and resistance from the estimated 300,000 farmers who would have to be relocated because of a canal and water-pumping and cleaning facilities. High costs limit many technological solutions: Water desalination, for example, is not only expensive but requires a huge amount of energy, another resource in short supply.

At least one multinational company is taking matters into its own hands. Last October, at a conference in Beijing, Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) pledged to cut water use in half at its more than 115 China outlets over the next two years. The Bentonville (Ark.) retailer also said that starting in January 2009 it will audit all of its more than 1,000 mainland suppliers to ensure they reduce their wastewater discharges, too. The company plans to monitor emissions and hazardous waste disposal. "Sustainability in our operations and our supply chain, selling and making products in an efficient, socially, and environmentally responsible way" is Wal-Mart's goal, former CEO and President H. Lee Scott told employees at the conference. "[It] will be essential to meeting the expectations of customers in the future," he added.